Express: "Self + Self Built" Mode Is A Loss.

In recent years, the rapid development of China's express industry has benefited mainly from the prosperity of the electricity supplier, and the two have contributed to each other.

"The Analects of Confucius" said: "the husband benevolent people, they want to stand up and establish people, they want to reach the daring people."

In recent years, the common development of China's electricity supplier and express delivery industry has perfectly explained what is "gentleman's adult tattoo".

The electricity supplier is the magnate of the express company. In turn, the express company is also the noble person of the electricity supplier.

According to the state post office data, between 2008 and 2015, the total annual volume of express delivery increased by 45%.

In 2015, 20 billion 670 million pieces (71.8% of them were distributed elsewhere), with a total income of 276 billion 960 million yuan (54.6% of which came from different places).

The average fee for each place and city is 10.19 yuan and 7.44 yuan respectively.

In Ali's 2016 fiscal year ended March 31, 2016, GMV broke 3 trillion.

When calculating the actual paction volume of the third party Jingdong, we assume that the return rate is 10%.

We might as well adopt stricter caliber for Ali, assuming that the actual paction amount is 70% of GMV.

It can be deduced that the actual paction amount of Ali in fiscal year 2016 is 2 trillion and 100 billion.

If the logistics cost accounts for 10% of the turnover, the Ali family will bring 210 billion revenue to the Chinese express industry.

In October 2010, Jingdong platform was only opened to third party sellers. The first two years were mainly products related to travel (such as air tickets).

Since 2012, the category supplied by third party sellers has rapidly enriched.

By the end of 2013, there were 6000 self operated suppliers, with more than 2 million 200 thousand SKU, and 23 thousand and 500 third party sellers contributed 23 million 500 thousand SKU.

In 2015, the third party seller GMV exceeded 200 billion, accounting for 44.3% of the total GMV.

However, the third party sellers' use of "Jingdong distribution" has not been disclosed.

Jingdong customers will get goods in one of three ways: 1) shipping goods from Jingdong warehouse (experience best); 2) third party sellers send to Jingdong sorting center, Jingdong completes follow-up distribution service; 3) third party sellers send goods to consumers directly.

The first case is known as "

"

The latest standards implemented in April 1, 2016 are: after deducting the amount of orders from direct and reverse, the order amount is less than $99, which is 6 yuan per unit (corporate members and Diamond members should not be less than 79 yuan).

The earnings report never disclosed the data of third party sellers using Jingdong logistics.

We had to estimate by a simple test: open Jingdong APP, search for certain commodities (such as "TV", "notebook computer" and "mobile phone"), and then click on the "Jingdong distribution" condition.

The result is that the third party sellers use the distribution service of Jingdong.

According to the rough estimation of the test, the Jingdong distribution does not occupy more than 10% of the third party seller's orders.

The remaining 90% orders are distributed by third party logistics.

In 2015, Jingdong's direct business GMV and revenue were 255 billion 600 million and 167 billion 700 million respectively.

That is to say, the actual amount received after deducting returns, straight down, full reduction and cash return is only 167 billion 700 million, less than 70% of GMV.

Assuming the third party order return rate is 10%, the actual paction amount in 2015 is about 183 billion yuan.

If Jingdong logistics takes up 10% of them, it will be 18 billion 300 million.

Then, in 2015, the self built logistics system of Jingdong completed the distribution of value 186 billion goods (167 billion 700 million +183 billion).

13 billion 920 million the "performance cost" is about 7.5% of the value of the goods delivered.

But "performance cost" is only part of the logistics cost.

Huge fixed assets

,

To amortize, and the financial costs of goods, debt, and so on.

Therefore, the cost of performance cost is only the lower limit of logistics distribution cost.

In 2015, the upper limit of Jingdong's self operated gross profit margin was 4.5%, and the lower limit of self built logistics distribution cost was 7.5%. Although the above calculation is unavoidable to have errors, the conclusion of "self run + self built" mode is a loss. This conclusion should be able to stand.

The 8 year passed, looking at Shun Feng, Shen Tong and Tantong financial reports. We felt that our courier companies were not as unbearable as Liu Qiang Dong said.

Their scale is growing and service quality is improving. Three companies made a total of 3 billion 400 million in 2015.

While Jingdong self built logistics, although experience is good, but also costly, and even become the "enemy" of profit.