The Impact Of The Epidemic Situation On Transportation Leads To Short-Term Supply Shortage, And Coal Prices Continue To Rise Or Break 1000 Yuan?

The supply of coal is in short supply, and the situation of coal price rising all the way is still continuing.

In the past two days, more than 100 trucks were queuing up in front of several coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia for several kilometers. Recently, a number of mainstream indexes reflecting the spot price of coal have been suspended. In fact, the quotation of port steam coal is still adjusting frequently, and even "1000 yuan coal" (coal price over 1000 yuan per ton) has appeared in the coal transaction of northern ports.

The continuous strong demand of downstream makes the port coal price continue to rise, and the port inventory is low. According to the data, as of January 15, the price of 5500 kcal steam coal produced in Shanxi Province of Qinhuangdao port was 972.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 115 yuan / ton. On January 15, the latest transaction price of 5500 kcal steam coal in Qinhuangdao port was 956 yuan / ton, up 96 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

"In the short term, truck queuing is basically due to strong downstream demand and excessive price rise." On January 19, Zhou Tai, chief analyst of coal industry of Anxin securities, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter that since December 2020, on the one hand, the weather changes and the cooling range is large; on the other hand, the economy recovers, and the thermal power industry also starts to improve. "This is probably the fastest growth in coal demand in recent years."

It is worth noting that on January 19, 2105, the main contract of thermal coal, opened at 717.6 yuan / ton and closed at 681.6 yuan / ton, down 43.6 yuan / ton or 6.01% compared with the previous trading day. Researchers told reporters that the specific reasons for the decline remain to be observed and studied.

Epidemic prevention and control results in limited export

According to the data of China (Taiyuan) coal trading center, the latest comprehensive trading price index on January 18 was 141.47 points, up 0.68% month on month. Since November 2, 2020, it has risen for 11 consecutive periods. China's coastal power coal purchasing price index (5500 kcal steam coal) in the latest period was 729 yuan / ton, up 29 yuan / ton from the previous week.

The reason behind the rising price is that the overseas epidemic situation has led to the backflow of some orders, thus promoting the demand for replenishment of inventory in the thermal power industry. Peng Xin, an analyst with Tianfeng securities, pointed out: "in terms of demand, small downstream enterprises have not stopped working, and there are many orders, and the power load of enterprises is high. The cement industry is in good condition. The operating rate of jiangnei, East China and South China is higher than that of the same period. The inventory in Jiangshui is at a low level, and the price is rising rapidly due to the shortage of goods. The inventory of inland and some coastal power plants has reached a record low, the available days are within 10 days, the enthusiasm of replenishment is high, and the short-term demand side is still supported. "

On the supply side, most of the mining areas have normal production conditions and relatively stable supply. Some small mines have holiday plans in the later stage, and some coal mines have stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic. Under the influence of the epidemic situation and profits, some coal mines may increase the annual production plan. At this stage, the mining area is forbidden to pull coal trucks into the mine in the epidemic risk area. Therefore, the impact of coal export obstruction in central and southern Shanxi is greater.

In addition, Hebei is a high-risk area for this year's epidemic, and as a major coal province, it is also coordinating to solve the transportation problem. On January 18, the development and Reform Commission of Handan City, Hebei Province, organized and held the fifth power coal security dispatching meeting. In terms of railway transportation, in order to solve the problem of difficult train application between China Railway Taiyuan Railway Bureau and Beijing Railway Bureau, Handan railway office communicated with Beijing Bureau, promised to transport more coal trains for power transmission, and actively communicated and negotiated with Taiyuan Railway Bureau on road transportation. In order to solve the problem of blocked coal transport vehicles in Shanxi Province, Changzhi City agreed to open up a green channel for coal transportation between Handan and Changzhi through communication and coordination with Changzhi Municipal government, and applied for permits for 97 coal transport vehicles in Handan city.

Peng Xin analyzed that, in general, the Spring Festival is approaching to ensure safety, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, a few coal mines in the production area began to stop production, the overall supply was limited, and the prices continued to rise. The shortage of medium, high-grade and low sulfur coal in the port is still in short supply. Some power plants in the downstream are in urgent need of replenishment. The short-term contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent. The market still has certain support. In the later stage, more attention should be paid to the arrival of imported coal, the production and transportation of mining area, and the control of epidemic situation.

In Zhou Tai's view, this round of hot market will begin to fall around the Spring Festival. "First, the national development and Reform Commission requires more production and better supply on the premise of ensuring safety; second, the shutdown of some factories during the Spring Festival holiday will lead to a decline in daily coal consumption; third, the weather is gradually warming, and the demand for power generation and heating will be weakened."

Demand gap promotes import fever

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 14 showed that in December 2020, 39.075 million tons of coal were imported, an increase of 36.303 million tons, or 1309.63%, compared with 2.772 million tons in the same period of last year, and 234.8% month on month. From January to December 2020, China imported 304 million tons of coal, a record high since 2014 (including 2014), with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%.

Chen Chen, an analyst with China Thailand securities, said that at present, the port is still tight, the rise in the pithead is strong, and the export of production areas is limited, and some non electric enterprises have increased their acceptance of high price goods. Strong demand led to a surge in coal imports. On the demand side, the power load of downstream enterprises is at a high level, the cement operation is in good condition, and many power plants have low inventory and high enthusiasm for replenishment, and there is still support at the short-term demand side. "

This judgment is also confirmed by the import price of steam coal. As of January 14, Newcastle's power coal price was 87.65 US dollars / ton, up 9.34% on a weekly basis.

At present, due to the continuous spread of the epidemic in the world, imported coal has a large price difference advantage, a new round of inquiry is also gradually increasing, foreign mine prices will continue to rise. "At present, Indonesia (cv3800) delivered in February has quoted fob49-50 US dollars, and China and Qatar coal resources are even more in demand, (cv4400) FOB is about $70," Peng said

According to a report by Argus media, an energy price agency, Chinese utilities and cement manufacturers are currently purchasing high calorific value coal from a wide range of suppliers such as Russia, Colombia and even South Africa. Zhou Tai also said, "the import of coal will reach a new high in December 2020, mainly because domestic production does not increase with the increase of demand."

However, Zhou Tai believes that although the country is vigorously advocating the increase of domestic supply, the domestic production increase can only be alleviated in the short term, and there is not much room for the import to continue to grow, and the situation of coal supply shortage is difficult to completely solve.