PTA Difficult Or Difficult Market Trend Or Calm Passed August

In August, the hot weather will gradually cool down, and the demand will also fade in the off-season. In the end market expectations, the current PTA market is more stable, and the factory maintenance will not be high enough, and ample supply will be accumulated. On the whole, PTA is in a state of difficulty, or will pass through this August calmly.

There is still some pressure on the cost side.

In terms of cost, the fluctuation of international oil prices has been aggravated by the fluctuation of macro information. The load of domestic PX plant has been increased, and the new plant is expected to be put into operation in September, and there is still some pressure on the cost side. In addition, the United States delays the Levy of tariffs on some products in the near future. From the actual situation, there is no big practical benefit for PTA and the downstream of the terminal, but more importantly, it has affected the cost side from the macro message level.

Factory operating rate remains high

At present, the start-up rate of PTA plant remains high, and there is no significant change in maintenance. Last Monday, Yangzi Petrochemical 650 thousand tons of plant shutdown inspection; weekend, Hua Bin Petrochemical maintenance device restart; in addition, Yizheng Petrochemical 350 thousand tons of equipment, Jialong Petrochemical 600 thousand tons, Yisheng 650 thousand tons of equipment, Li Wan polyester 700 thousand tons of plant parking, PTA effective capacity start rate of about 94%. In terms of cash flow, the spot price of PTA rose slightly last week, and the processing fee remained near 1000 yuan / ton.

Demand side is showing signs of improvement.

There are signs of improvement in downstream demand. The load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 2.5 percentage points to 74% over the previous week. Last week polyester production and marketing staged a pick-up, polyester products inventory was digested, polyester cash flow continued to rise, polyester load increased 1.4 percentage points to 86.9%. This week there are still many sets of polyester reboot expected, the load is expected to further increase.

However, it should be noted that although the production and marketing of polyester terminals are improved, the terminal weaving needs to be improved, and the order persistence and inventory consumption need to be seen. On the whole, the demand side has been repaired, but there has been no substantial change in the downstream.

Loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (%)

To sum up, the current PTA factory overhaul intention is not high, the supply is ample, the inventory is accumulated, the terminal demand is better than usual, and the polyester start up slightly, so we can pay attention to the improvement of fundamentals. However, at present, the macro mood is fluctuating, and market confidence is still insufficient. It is expected that short-term or maintain low volatility, we need to pay attention to the implementation of the factory overhaul. (source: Pioneer futures, Meyer futures)