The Market Closed At 3100 Points In October, And The Repetition Will Continue

This week, under the protection of blue chips such as "Chinese" stocks and financial stocks, the overall market was stable. However, the weakness of small and medium-sized start-ups curbed the market's confidence in taking a long position, and the overall market fluctuated narrowly above 3100 points. Finally, the market closed up 0.43% for the whole week, and the GEM fell 0.71% for the week. The total trading volume of the two cities increased 7.86% compared with the previous week. This shows that there are some inflows of OTC funds and outflows of OTC funds, which is reflected in the "siege" of the market, but only in the first half of the week. Although market sentiment is stable, confidence needs to be improved.

Specifically, this week's volume can be released, and the activity of individual stocks remains, but the differentiation increases. The hot spots in the market mainly focus on shell resources, state-owned enterprise reform and the revaluation of blue chips, and the theme stocks are mostly "one-day tour" market. The persistence of market hot spots is insufficient, and the profit making effect is not high though there is; The money loss effect rebounded. The "seesaw" phenomenon in the market is serious, and the willingness to pursue higher funds is insufficient.

Technically, this week Market Develop first and restrain later, and walk out of the "flag" trend. The main tone is still the consolidation of momentum, and the trend is rising in price (rising in Shanghai, falling in Shenzhen). The market strongly held 3100 points, but closed below the 126 week line, which indicates that 3100 points have support, the early high point has pressure, and the market is in a dilemma.

The daily technical indicators show that after the market opened low on Friday, it once rose sharply in the session, but eventually went out of the trend of rising and falling, and the volatility of the market increased. The relationship between volume and price shows that there is still inertia decline in the short-term market, and the 3100 point may be lost. However, the K line combination shows that the short-term market still has a requirement of anti pumping. The technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the short-term market has lost momentum, but some of the technical indicators will not accelerate to fall back due to the deviation from the bottom, and the market will repeat in the session.

Based on the comprehensive technical analysis, we believe that the short-term market will be repeated around 3100 points, and the market will continue to rise first and then decline next week. Next week, the market will face a battle of closing the month line. It is a big probability that the market will close in October. In terms of operation, we do not chase the high, but focus on the trading opportunities of the bottom stagflation stocks on bargain hunting, and reduce our holdings of stocks that have risen too high in the previous period.

We believe that although this week the overall market rose first and then fell, especially the trend in the second half of the week suppressed the market sentiment, and the confidence was insufficient, the overall market rebound has not ended, and there is little room for short-term fall back. At present, as the prospect of the US general election is still unclear, the boots of the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates have not yet fallen, and there are still foreign problems restricting the rebound space of A-shares, so the future rebound space is limited.

Unconsciously, Shanghai Stock Exchange Index I also felt the annual line called the "cattle bear boundary". Generally speaking, the market calls the 250 day moving average the annual line. Its technical significance lies in the average cost of holding shares in about 250 trading days a year. By jumping the previous year's line, the number of profiteers increased, and the market began to be cheerful. On the contrary, the farther down from the year's line, the market was full of holdups, and the bear atmosphere was pervasive.

Today, the annual line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is 3084 points. As the end of the year approaches, it is not easy for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to return to the annual line. It is not so much that the market has risen to the annual line, but rather that the annual line has moved down to the current position. It can be expected that there will be a contest between the two sides around the annual line, and the market still needs time to gain space.

At present, the annual line moves down at a rate of 1 point every day, that is, even if it is maintained in place, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will also stand above the annual line. But from the trend, the downward range of the annual line has become smaller and smaller, and there are signs of leveling up. The lower half year line has stabilized at 2981 and slowly risen, It seems that bulls are ready to rise. In the last two months at the end of the year, it depends on the market Fundamental plane Whether to support the market upward.