Zhang Jingwei'S Interpretation Of Loose Monetary Policy

Since there are no structural adjustment tasks in developed economies such as Japan and Europe, the deflation symptoms can be alleviated by using large monetary policy.

Emerging markets, especially Brazil, South Africa and Russia, which rely on resources and energy exports, are increasingly embarrassed by the lack of global market demand.

But whether developed economies or emerging markets, they will boost the demand for global markets in China.

They expect China to continue to maintain rapid economic growth and boost the sluggish production factor prices with huge market demand.

However, China will not be able to start large-scale operations again.

It is the top priority of the overcapacity to accumulate excess capacity from overinvestment.

Therefore, in the era of "double deflation", the Chinese market need not be too strict with the fiscal policy. The steady growth depends mainly on the comprehensive utilization of monetary policy and related innovative means.

In the past September, the price data from "living goods" and "industrial products" were not optimistic.

The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on 14 may show that CPI rose by 1.6% in September, down 0.4% from last month, the first time this index has turned downward since May this year.

Reflecting industrial prices, PPI9 fell by 5.9% compared with the same period last month, and the rate of decline was flat last month. This is the 43 consecutive month of decline since the index switched to negative in March 2012.

The rise in pork prices led to inflation in August, because the CPI growth was on the downside since the harvest season.

In short, the trend of "double deflation" in life and industry has come into being.

But in September, the overall trend of CPI and PPI will not change much in October.

With the advent of the fourth quarter, steady growth has entered a critical period of sprint. The dilemma of "double deflation" has determined that the policy side needs to release more liquidity and achieve the annual growth target of 7%.

The first three quarters of the year, the central bank has carried out 4 interest rate cuts and reduction, including two simultaneous "double drop".

From this, we can see the loose keynote of the annual monetary policy.

From the micro level of economics, the continuous reduction of interest rate or reduction is to improve the inflation rate, or to correct deflation.

In terms of macroeconomic operation, it is to activate low demand and achieve steady economic growth.

The economies of Japan and Europe are mainly monetary policy easing - quantitative easing (QE) to stimulate inflation rate in order to achieve different economic growth. China's monetary policy easing is a multi tool and multi tool application.

Moreover, it is supplemented by positive fiscal policies, decentralization of administrative efficiency and the expansion of FTA in deepening reform.

Of course, if we make a rough distinction, the release of monetary policy is mainly based on steady growth, and the implementation of fiscal measures and a package of deep reform measures will focus on structural adjustment.

Therefore, for China's economic operation in 2015, we must have a clear "dichotomy" thinking.

For "

"Before that, relevant agencies predicted that there would be a reduction or reduction in interest rates at the end of September and early October.

"Eleven" golden week ushered in a wave of consumption climax, and the central bank did not cut interest rates, but it provided new means of monetary adjustment.

The credit assets pledge reloan will be extended to 11 provinces and municipalities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu and Chongqing from two provinces in Shandong and Guangdong provinces, and the public opinion will be released more than 7 trillion yuan.

This means that the policy area hopes to achieve more dimensions by means of more financial innovation.

Release.

But the "big investment" from the market shows anxiety about the expected growth.

Of course, the feedback from policy is that China will not have QE, nor will it repeat the rash of investment in stimulating growth.

"Double deflation" is terrible.

In particular, PPI has seen the weakness of market demand since its turning point in March 2012.

As a result, prices of coal, oil, iron ore, nonferrous metals and rare metals continued to decline.

As a huge consumer of bulk bulk goods, China's consumption demand is insufficient, and naturally the global market is in the doldrums.

The slump in the global market has, in turn, affected the Chinese market. This cycle has formed an infectious disease of deflation.

Therefore, in order to achieve the goal of steady growth of 7%, a reduction in the fourth quarter is expected.

The significance of the fifth reduction in the year is that, first, the overall economic situation of the downward trend of the economy is still under the control of policies; the two is that monetary policy is in many rounds, moderation and multi use, highlighting the policy rhythm of the central bank, and proving to the market that China does not need QE like the US, Japan and Europe. Three, "double deflation" can stabilize the risk of risks with appropriate monetary policies, and lay a good foundation for further structural adjustment in the coming year.